I know, what is a movie guy talking about sports for? I actually wrote this for something else and decided just to throw it up here in case some of my readers were interested.
Please do enjoy (or don’t)
Don’t Over Think It
Keep it simple stupid, don’t get cute, it’s not rocket surgery, choose whichever platitude you’d like the fact remains, when it comes to the first round of your fantasy football draft over thinking your pick is the biggest mistake you can make. We’ve all seen it (and most of us have done it), that guy who brings reams of printouts or has beautifully designed spreadsheets on his laptop breaking down players goal line targets or carries last season to your fantasy draft. That’s the genius that drafted TJ Duckett too early every year from 2004-2006 because their stats told them this was the year TJ was going to get back to double-digit touchdowns. That’s the guy that grabbed Mike Tolbert in the fifth round last year. That’s the guy that drafted Mike Vick in the top three. Is that the guy who wins your league? I didn’t think so. Winners avoid risk with their early picks and go for upside down the line and ALWAYS look out for the guy who drops because he was drafted too high last year.
At the top of the draft just ask yourself two questions. First, who has the highest realistic upside based on talent, opportunity and team? Second, what are the odds that, due to injury or underperformance, the guy will not reach that upside? If you feel like you really need to have numbers you can put the answers to each of those questions on a scale from 1 to 10 and simply subtract the second number from the first (upside – risk). Whoever has the highest number is the person you pick. If you do that, this is your top 5:
Aaron Rogers – QB, Green Bay Packers
The days of Marshall Falk, LT or Priest Holmes guaranteeing a championship are gone. Rogers is the safest bet on the board and someone you know is going to keep you in your match-up week in and week out.
Arian Foster – RB, Houston Texans
Kubiak has finally remembered the offense he ran in Denver when they won back to back Superbowls, zone blocking with a north and south runner who wont be fancy if he doesn’t need to be. Foster may not put up the numbers TD did in Denver, but he will put up numbers and with Ben Tate spelling him Houston should be able to keep Foster fresh and healthy.
LeSean McCoy – RB, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles learned three things from their debacle last season. First, without a healthy Vick they aren’t going anywhere. Second, maybe it will take an o-line coach a season to become a real NFL Defensive Coordinator. And third, McCoy is the real deal and the perfect running back for Andy Reid’s version of the west coast offense, which is to say he can do it all. The Eagles will lean on McCoy all year to slow down pass rushes by effectively running on first and second down, to be the quick outlet for Vick when the rush does come and to run at the goal line so Vick doesn’t have to.
Calvin Johnson – WR, Detroit Lions
I know, we aren’t supposed to pick receivers this high, but ask yourself, other than Rogers, what player would you bet your life on to finish in the top 3 at his position? No running back, injuries are just too common. Maybe Gronk but couldn’t you see defenses having spent a year trying to figure out how to take him away will have Brady looking more to Hernandez, Lloyd and Welker? Megatron will be one of the top 3 receivers in football. It’s just a fact.
Tom Brady – QB, New England Patriots
Remember what Brady did last time McDaniels was his offensive coordinator? Yup, I’d say Brady is a pretty safe bet for a huge year. And like I said, sure things are what we are looking for at the top of the draft.
What’s the old saying? You can’t win your league in the first round but you can loose it. You wont loose it with any of those five and a sleeper that may help you win it is…
Steven Jackson – RB, St. Louis Rams
Every year there is a running back who was either drafted too high the year before so everyone hates him or has just been around so long that he is a boring pick. What happens to these guys? They drop (anyone who got Matt Forte in the 4th round last year knows what I am talking about). It Stephen Jackson’s turn to drop.